Methodology

A traceable analysis, not a promise.

FRAME III aims to structure a decision under uncertainty. An analysis replaces neither sporting variance nor the bettor's own discipline.

What FRAME III analyses

  • Recent performance
  • Quality of opponents
  • Sport-specific conditions
  • Player availability
  • Fatigue and schedule
  • Market movements
  • Data quality and freshness
  • Editorial validation

What FRAME III does not claim

  • — No match is certain.
  • — Low odds don't guarantee a result.
  • — Potential value can still lose.
  • — A positive history doesn't guarantee the future.
  • — A model doesn't replace personal discipline.
  • — An analysis is not financial advice.

Data sources

We visually distinguish integrations by maturity. A provider only appears as active when it is genuinely in production.

FixturesConnected
ResultsConnected
Team statisticsIn validation
Player statisticsIn validation
StandingsConnected
OddsConnected
Editorial contextConnected
Advanced signalsPlanned

Quality control

Freshness, completeness, consistency and conflicts between sources are checked before any publication. When data is missing or inconsistent, FRAME III declines to publish rather than improvise.

Football

Coming soon
  • · Weighted recent form
  • · Home / away
  • · Head-to-head history (H2H)
  • · Shots and efficiency
  • · Absences and line-ups
  • · Schedule and recovery
  • · Strength of opposition
  • · Market dynamics

Tennis

Coming soon
  • · Surface and surface Elo
  • · Serve, return, hold %, break %
  • · Quality of opponents
  • · Fatigue and travel
  • · Change of surface
  • · Contextualised H2H
  • · Length of recent matches
  • · Retirements, injuries, market

Reading odds

Decimal odds of 2.00 correspond to a raw implied probability of 50%, before the bookmaker's margin is taken into account. The fair odd removes that margin so the model estimate can be compared with the market.

Potential value

There is potential value when the probability estimated by the model is higher than the market's margin-adjusted implied probability.
Positive value doesn't guarantee that the bet will win.

Keeping concepts separate

Data quality

Shows whether the data is reliable enough to analyse.

Model probability

Estimates the sporting probability of the outcome analysed.

Value

Compares the model estimate with the market's implied probability.

Editorial verdict

Decides whether the analysis deserves publication after human review.

These four notions are never merged into a single opaque score.

Human validation

Step 01

Data review

Checks on freshness, sources and integrity.

Step 02

Reading the context

Absences, schedule, recent momentum.

Step 03

Weighing the risks

Degrading factors, unfavourable scenarios.

Step 04

Publish or decline

No forced publication. Everything is logged.

Settlement

Every settled analysis is classified: won, lost, void, refunded, postponed or pending. The originally published odds are kept whatever the result.

Track record

Tracking is done in units. Losses are kept. Void bets are excluded from the win rate. Sample size is always shown: a positive ROI on a small volume is no proof of future performance.

Limitations

  • — Errors or delays in source data.
  • — Late injuries or line-up changes.
  • — Weather, refereeing decisions, sporting variance.
  • — Fast market moves and limited liquidity.
  • — Difference between the reference odds and the odds actually available.

Responsible gambling

A set budget, stake limits, never chasing losses, adults only, self-exclusion tools.

Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Adults only. Need help? In France: Joueurs Info Service — 09 74 75 13 13. Gamble responsibly.